How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Affect the Iran Conflict

US President Donald Trump asserts that his nation possesses an almost boundless arsenal of critical weapons. In contrast, Iran’s defense ministry insists its country can endure hostilities for a longer duration than the United States had anticipated. While stockpiles alone might not determine the conflict’s result, they play a crucial role, as seen in Ukraine’s prolonged struggle against Russia.

The conflict has seen rapid operations from the outset. Both sides are depleting their armaments at a pace exceeding production capabilities. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reports that the US and Israel have executed over 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions. Meanwhile, Iran has already deployed 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, many of which have been intercepted.

“The capacity to resist the enemy has been extended beyond initial projections,”

the Iranian defense ministry stated, highlighting the nation’s resilience. However, Western analysts note a decline in the number of missiles Iran is firing, from hundreds on the first day to dozens in recent days. US Central Command (Centcom) reports an 86% reduction in ballistic missile launches since the conflict began, with a 23% drop in the past 24 hours.

Iran was believed to have manufactured tens of thousands of Shahed drones before the war. These drones, shared with Russia, have been instrumental in Ukraine. The US has also adopted the design. Yet, Caine observed a 73% decrease in Iran’s drone attacks, suggesting potential strategic adjustments.

With US and Israeli jets now dominating the skies, most of Iran’s air defenses have been neutralized. Its air force no longer poses a credible threat. Centcom outlines the next phase as targeting Iran’s missile and drone launchers, along with its stockpiles and production facilities. This could weaken Iran’s combat capabilities, though complete destruction may prove challenging.

Iran’s vast territory—three times the size of France—means weapons can still be concealed. Historical examples, like Israel’s three-year campaign against Hamas in Gaza and the US’s year-long efforts in Yemen, show that airpower alone cannot eliminate all resistance. Despite its dominance, the US remains reliant on costly precision-guided munitions, which are produced in limited quantities.

Caine mentioned the shift from expensive long-range “stand-off weapons” like Tomahawk cruise missiles to more affordable “stand-in” options such as JDAM bombs. These can be deployed closer to targets. Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), claims the US can sustain this level of engagement “almost indefinitely” with the current arsenal.

As the war persists, the number of viable targets diminishes, leading to a gradual reduction in the intensity of operations. The US maintains a large stockpile of JDAM bombs, but air defense systems are scarcer. These were vital in the early stages for countering Iranian retaliation, though their availability is now a limiting factor.