Steve Rosenberg: Russia seeks diplomatic and economic gains from Iran war

Steve Rosenberg: Russia’s Motives in the Iran Conflict

Strategic Ties and Diplomatic Moves

This week, a second instance in just seven days saw the presidents of Russia and Iran engage in a telephone exchange. As the U.S. and Israel intensify their attacks on Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed himself as a global peacekeeper. Yet, this narrative faces skepticism, particularly given his role in directing Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The UN General Assembly had previously denounced that action as a breach of the UN Charter.

Russia maintains a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Iran, a relationship Putin has recently reaffirmed, emphasizing “unwavering support” for Tehran. However, this alliance lacks a formal mutual defense pact. Instead, Moscow aims to act as a mediator, leveraging its influence to shape outcomes in the Middle East. During a Monday call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin highlighted efforts to achieve a diplomatic resolution, citing interactions with Gulf leaders and other international figures.

Economic Gains and Energy Dynamics

While advocating for de-escalation in Iran, Russia capitalizes on the conflict’s economic implications. The recent surge in global oil prices has provided a significant financial boost to Moscow, aiding its continued funding of the Ukraine war. The federal budget relies on oil exports at $59 per barrel, yet prices have risen sharply to nearly $120, remaining above that threshold despite recent dips.

Trump suggested the U.S. might ease oil-related sanctions on certain nations to mitigate shortages caused by the Iran conflict. If Russia is among those beneficiaries, it could receive an even larger influx of revenue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned this would be a “serious blow” to Kyiv, urging Trump to reconsider.

Public Sentiment and Contradictions

Although the Kremlin avoids direct criticism of Trump, some Russian media outlets have taken a harsher stance. A recent headline in the pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda declared, “Expensive oil is a reason [for the West] to cancel sanctions.” Meanwhile, the Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid mocked Trump’s peace efforts, stating, “The ‘peace president’ has simply lost his mind. The Emperor has no clothes. Or rather, no sanity.”

“I said, ‘You could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with. That would be more helpful.'” – Donald Trump following his call with Vladimir Putin