Exclusive: US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability, sources say

Exclusive: US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability, sources say

Recent US intelligence reports, shared with CNN by three undisclosed sources, suggest that approximately half of Iran’s missile launchers remain undamaged and thousands of one-way attack drones still exist in the country’s arsenal despite relentless strikes from the United States and Israel over the last five weeks. “They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one source remarked, emphasizing Iran’s readiness to escalate conflicts.

The assessment, compiled in recent days, includes launchers that are temporarily out of reach, such as those buried underground by airstrikes but not entirely destroyed. Two sources indicated that Iran’s drone stockpile remains robust, with nearly half of its total drone capabilities intact. Additionally, the intelligence highlights that a substantial portion of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles are still operational, even though US air campaigns have primarily targeted other military assets.

“Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left,” President Donald Trump declared in a televised address, contrasting with the intelligence’s more measured findings.

According to US Central Command, over 12,300 targets have been struck inside Iran since the conflict began. The intelligence indicates that US and Israeli actions have weakened Iran’s military infrastructure, with several high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and National Security Council head Ali Larijani, eliminated in the process. However, Iran continues to hold a considerable number of missiles, as noted by the sources.

The Pentagon’s public statements highlight a sharp decline in Iranian missile and drone attacks, citing a 90% reduction since the conflict’s onset. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth noted this during a press briefing on March 19, claiming that “ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90 percent since the start of the conflict, same with one way attack UAVs, think kamikaze drones, down 90 percent.” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly echoed this, asserting that “anonymous sources desperately want to attack President Trump and demean the incredible work of our United States Military in achieving the goals of Operation Epic Fury.”

Yet, the intelligence paints a different picture. One source, familiar with both US data and Israeli assessments, noted that Israel’s count of operational Iranian launchers is significantly lower, estimating them at 20-25%. This figure excludes launchers hidden in caves or tunnels, which are still functional but not immediately accessible. The first source who reviewed the intelligence argued that Trump’s claim of a two- to three-week timeline for concluding operations is overly optimistic, given the remaining Iranian capabilities.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell contested CNN’s findings, calling them “completely wrong.” He insisted that “the United States military has delivered a crippling series of blows to the Iranian regime,” with progress exceeding initial projections. “We are far ahead of schedule on accomplishing our military objectives: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal, annihilate their Navy, destroy their terrorist proxies, and ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon,” Parnell stated.