Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
Experts Dispute US Claim Over Deadly Lamerd Strike
On the opening day of the conflict, a deadly attack on Lamerd, a town in southern Iran, sparked debate among weapons specialists. The US initially alleged that Iran had launched the strike, but multiple experts have questioned this assertion, analyzing footage and offering independent assessments. Their findings suggest the weapon may not have been Iranian.
Centcom’s Denial and Expert Analysis
US Central Command (Centcom), which manages military operations in the Middle East, initially dismissed the possibility of a US missile being involved in the strike. It later released a statement on 31 March, claiming the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile. The statement added that “US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime, which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries over 300 times.”
“US forces did not launch any strikes into Lamerd or within 30 miles during the war’s first day,” said US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins. “The munition depicted in the video appears to be twice as long, matching the dimensions of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.”
However, experts challenged Centcom’s conclusion. They highlighted the Hoveyzeh’s unique characteristics, such as its belly-mounted turbojet and mid-body wings, which were not clearly visible in the strike footage. Amael Kotlarski, a Janes analyst, noted, “No matter the viewing angle, the wings and turbojet would be discernible. None of these features appear in the video.”
Initial Findings and Supporting Reports
Verified CCTV footage from Iranian state media, authenticated by BBC Verify, captured the munition moments before it exploded over a residential area. Experts initially identified it as a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), citing its size, the blast pattern, and proximity to potential US launch sites. Three Janes analysts and a McKenzie Intelligence expert all pointed to the PrSM as the likely weapon. A New York Times report corroborated this analysis.
Despite the low-resolution video, the mid-air explosion aligns with the PrSM’s airburst capability, which disperses fragments over a wider area. This feature is common in advanced missile systems. Experts argue the footage contradicts the Hoveyzeh’s appearance, noting that the weapon lacks the distinctive “canard fins” typically associated with PrSMs.
Additional Strikes and Ongoing Disputes
On the same day, nearly 400km east in Minab, another strike hit an Iranian school and a military base, killing 168 people. Video analysis indicates the attack may have been carried out by a US Tomahawk missile. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the incident is under review, stating, “US forces never target civilian targets.”
“The length of the missile is much more consistent with the PrSM than the Hoveyzeh,” wrote Trevor Ball of Bellingcat on X. “The Hoveyzeh’s silhouette also differs, with wings and an engine visible depending on the angle.”
Centcom remained unswayed by the experts’ critiques, offering no new insights when BBC Verify revisited the analysis. The dispute underscores the complexity of identifying munitions in conflict zones, with differing interpretations of technical details shaping the narrative.
