Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian experiment runs out of steam

Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian experiment runs out of steam

After 16 years of governing, Viktor Orbán’s tenure has been described as an “experiment,” yet the name of the project eluded him. While “illiberal democracy” carried a critical tone, his American allies preferred the label “national conservatism,” a term that felt more palatable. However, this classification was never entirely precise. Unlike traditional conservatives, Orbán was a relentless innovator, pushing his political ideology further each time. The question remained: what exactly was he conserving?

Orbán consistently challenged mainstream norms, mocking “Brussels bureaucrats” and positioning himself as a disruptor. His confrontational stance often turned into a strategic advantage when opposition pushed back. He presented himself as an “anti globalist” yet welcomed foreign investments, including partnerships with German automakers and Chinese and South Korean battery producers. Similarly, he claimed to champion national sovereignty but hesitated to defend Ukrainian territorial integrity against Russian aggression. His rhetoric on immigration was sharp, yet he quietly encouraged migration from Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Ukraine, and Turkey to support industrial growth.

By 2025, the fertility rate in Hungary had dropped to 1.31, a figure he had inherited from the Socialist administration in 2010. This statistic underscored the challenges of his policies, even as he continued to promote family-friendly incentives. His swift retreat from power on Sunday night revealed a keen awareness of public perception. Orbán had long embraced a “majoritarian” model, believing the victor should dictate all aspects of governance. This approach allowed him to rewrite Hungary’s constitution in 2010 and reshape institutions to align with his party’s vision.

“Tonight we celebrate,” he told the massive crowds, dancing by the Danube. “But tomorrow, we start work.”

Despite his successes in consolidating authority, Orbán’s supporters had grown weary of constant conflict. The public craved stability, a return to normalcy without the relentless ideological battles. Péter Magyar’s victory signaled a shift, as voters rejected the idea of being tested indefinitely. Magyar’s appeal lay in his message of inclusivity and a more balanced approach to national identity, offering a path where the rich, the poor, and the middle class could coexist without perpetual tension.