Burnham beats Reform in first Makerfield by-election poll – but only just

Burnham beats Reform in first Makerfield by-election poll - but only just

Burnham beats Reform in first Makerfield - Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has emerged as the frontrunner in the initial Makerfield by-election poll, edging out Reform UK’s candidate by a narrow margin. This result, albeit slight, signals a critical moment for Burnham as he attempts to secure a return to Westminster and position himself as a potential contender for the Prime Minister’s office.

The latest survey, conducted by Survation, reveals Burnham with 43% of the vote, just three points ahead of Reform’s Robert Kenyon. This tight race has raised questions about the strength of Labour’s hold in the traditionally working-class constituency and the viability of Farage’s far-right movement in local elections.

Burnham’s campaign launch last Friday focused on his vision for Parliament and a shift away from the party’s usual priorities. Speaking to a gathering of Labour supporters and local leaders, he emphasized that his candidacy would “force Westminster to focus on the places it usually looks past.” This rhetoric aims to reframe the contest as not just a political battle, but a chance to reshape the Labour Party’s identity and appeal.

Despite Burnham’s lead, Reform UK’s influence in the area remains significant. The party secured every ward in Makerfield during the recent local elections, a trend that has raised concerns about its growing presence in the region. Farage, who has positioned Reform as a key player in the UK’s political landscape, dismissed the poll as a “two horse race” between Labour and his own party, highlighting the narrow gap in support.

While the poll suggests a Labour victory, the margin is so slim that the outcome remains uncertain. The survey, based on responses from 369 likely voters, highlights the divided nature of the electorate. Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, has been described as “ready to take on the King of the North,” a nickname that underscores his position as a challenger to Burnham’s authority.

Burnham’s campaign also faces scrutiny over his past affiliations. Kenyon, who served as Reform’s candidate in the 2024 general election, was linked to Gary Raikes, the founder of the New British Union, a neo-fascist group. Although the connection was through a political Facebook page, it has sparked debates about Kenyon’s ideological alignment and the broader implications for the constituency’s political dynamics.

Fractured support for the right-wing vote appears to be a key factor in Burnham’s advantage. Restore Britain, a right-leaning group formed by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, has siphoned off some of the Conservative and Reform UK base. The Survation poll shows this faction securing seven points, which could have altered the race had the Green candidate not withdrawn after the survey was released.

The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are positioned at 4% in the poll, while the Greens, who had a minor presence, are now at 3% following their exit. This shift suggests that the race is primarily between Labour and Reform UK, with the Greens and Lib Dems struggling to gain traction. However, the narrow lead for Burnham indicates that the contest could still be decided by a small number of voters.

Makerfield’s transformation into a stronghold for Reform UK has been a notable trend in recent years. In 2024, the seat was won by Josh Simons, the outgoing Labour MP, by just over 5,000 votes. This slim margin, combined with Reform’s dominance in local elections, has created a volatile political environment. The constituency, once a Labour bastion, now reflects a more polarized electorate.

Burnham’s candidacy has been framed as a potential turning point for Labour. He has positioned himself as a reformer, urging voters to “change Labour” by supporting his bid for Parliament. This message aligns with his broader strategy to modernize the party’s image and appeal to working-class voters disillusioned with traditional left-wing policies.

Reform UK, however, has not been deterred by the poll results. The party’s leader, Nigel Farage, has remained vocal about the contest, emphasizing its importance in the broader political landscape. His backing for Kenyon has reinforced the perception that Reform is a viable alternative for those seeking a shift away from Labour’s current direction.

Kenyon’s campaign has also drawn attention to his personal history. While he is accused of sharing transphobic remarks and misinformation about the pandemic, his supporters argue that these incidents reflect his grassroots approach to politics. The controversy surrounding his social media activity has added an extra layer of complexity to the race, with some voters weighing his character against Burnham’s established reputation.

The outcome of the Makerfield by-election is likely to have broader implications for the 2024 general election. A Labour win could signal continued dominance in northern constituencies, while a Reform UK victory would mark a significant expansion of their influence. The tight margin in the poll suggests that the race will hinge on voter turnout and the ability of both candidates to mobilize their bases.

Burnham’s strategy appears to focus on connecting with local issues and positioning himself as a voice for working-class communities. In contrast, Kenyon’s campaign has emphasized national challenges, such as immigration and economic reform. These differing approaches have created a split in the electorate, with some voters drawn to Burnham’s local focus and others attracted to Kenyon’s far-right agenda.

As the campaign progresses, the political stakes in Makerfield are expected to rise. The seat’s historical significance as a Labour stronghold, coupled with Reform UK’s recent successes, has turned it into a battleground for the future of British politics. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Burnham can maintain his lead or if Reform UK can capitalize on the divided support.

“This is not just about winning a seat—it’s about proving that Labour can still thrive in a changing political landscape,” Burnham stated during his campaign launch. His words echo the urgency of the moment, as the by-election serves as a microcosm of broader electoral trends.

With the election approaching, both candidates are refining their messages and targeting key demographics. The narrow poll results underscore the need for a strong grassroots campaign and a clear differentiation from their opponents. As the final days of the race unfold, the outcome of Makerfield may have far-reaching consequences for the political future of the UK.