Could this woman determine who will be Britain’s next prime minister?

Could this woman determine who will be Britain’s next prime minister?

Could this woman determine who will - As the polls draw near, the outcome of the Makerfield by-election is taking on a new level of significance. What was once a local contest has now become a pivotal moment in the nation’s political future, with implications that could ripple far beyond the Wigan borough. The race is not just about securing a parliamentary seat—it’s about shaping the trajectory of the next prime minister.

A Shifting Political Landscape

The by-election was set in motion by a Labour MP, who sought to create an opportunity for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and challenge Sir Keir Starmer, the party’s leader. Starmer’s leadership has been under scrutiny, with internal tensions and public discontent casting doubt on his ability to maintain the party’s dominance. If Burnham emerges victorious, he is likely to face Starmer in a leadership contest, positioning himself as the frontrunner for the prime ministership.

However, the path to victory for Burnham is not guaranteed. The mayor of Greater Manchester, who is running against Reform UK’s candidate, faces an uphill battle. This is particularly evident in Makerfield, where the political climate has shifted dramatically. The area, once a stronghold for Labour, has seen a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in recent local elections. In those contests, Reform UK won 24 of the 25 seats up for grabs in Wigan, signaling a growing divide among voters.

The Role of Restore Britain

Enter Restore Britain, a new political force that could be the deciding factor in this tight race. Rebecca Shepherd, a local business owner and 53-year-old candidate for the party, is emerging as a key player. Her campaign might just tip the balance between Reform UK and Labour, offering a potential route for Burnham to secure the leadership.

Recent polling data reveals the precarious position of the parties. In the first constituency poll, Restore Britain managed to secure a seven-point lead over Reform UK, a significant boost for Labour. This margin, though modest, could be enough to shift the momentum in Burnham’s favor. A subsequent Survation poll showed Restore’s support increasing by one percent while Reform UK’s decreased by the same amount. Labour, meanwhile, maintained a 10-point lead, possibly bolstered by Restore’s strong showing.

"Their 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be larger than, or similar to, what might be the Labour lead over Reform," said Professor Sir John Curtice, the UK’s leading pollster.

Curtice emphasized that Restore Britain’s presence could act as a "potential spoiler" in the election, potentially affecting the outcome of the broader leadership race. The party’s ability to draw votes from Reform UK suggests a deeper ideological shift among some voters, particularly younger supporters who might view Reform as a less progressive alternative.

A New Political Challenger

Rupert Lowe, the founder of Restore Britain, is a former Reform UK MP whose suspension last year sparked controversy. Lowe was accused of threatening the party’s chairman, Zia Yusuf, but he denied the allegations. The Crown Prosecution Service concluded that no criminal charges would be filed, leaving the political fallout to be managed internally.

Despite this, Lowe has managed to carve out a new identity for his party. Restore Britain, which was initially centered in his Great Yarmouth constituency, has now expanded its reach. The party positions itself as a more radical alternative to Reform UK, especially on issues like immigration. This rightward shift has attracted backing from figures like Elon Musk, who has publicly endorsed Restore Britain on his X platform.

Implications for the Prime Ministership

Analysts suggest that the by-election could serve as a bellwether for the broader political landscape. If Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon secures the seat, Starmer might remain in power, or face a challenge from fellow Labour MPs such as Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting. Conversely, a Labour victory could pave the way for Burnham to assume the leadership, positioning him as a formidable contender for the prime ministership.

Professor Sir John Curtice also noted that Reform UK’s decline in support could be attributed to its inability to resonate with a broader electorate. "The national polls suggest they’re picking up the younger end of Reform support," Curtice explained. This trend highlights a generational divide, with some voters seeking a more authentic anti-establishment voice.

Meanwhile, Helen MacNamara, a former deputy cabinet secretary, pointed to Reform UK’s internal dynamics as a contributing factor to its loss of traction. "They’ve left the space for we’re not like them," she said, referring to the party’s inclusion of former Conservative ministers. This perceived inconsistency may have alienated some voters, creating an opening for Restore Britain to step in.

Even Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has tried to downplay the threat posed by Restore Britain. He has framed the by-election as a "two-horse race" between Labour and his own party. Yet, the evidence suggests that Restore is already making inroads into Reform’s voter base, potentially altering the course of the election.

With the results expected to come in shortly, the stakes have never been higher. The outcome could not only determine the next leader of the Labour Party but also influence the wider race for the prime ministership. Rebecca Shepherd’s campaign, though relatively new, has demonstrated the power of grassroots movements in shaping political outcomes.

As voters cast their ballots, the competition between Reform UK and Restore Britain will be closely watched. The question remains: can Shepherd’s efforts be enough to ensure Burnham’s path to No 10, or will Reform UK’s strength prevail? The answer may hinge on a single seat in Wigan, with consequences that extend far beyond local politics.