Restore Britain set to sweep Burnham to victory in Makerfield, new poll suggests

Restore Britain Set to Sweep Burnham in Makerfield By-Election

Restore Britain set to sweep Burnham - A new poll indicates that Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester's mayor, is poised to win the Makerfield by-election with support from the newly formed Restore Britain party. The exclusive survey, conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy, shows Burnham maintaining a narrow lead over Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon. However, the race remains a close contest, with potential shifts in voter sentiment and a wide margin of error keeping the outcome uncertain. The data highlights how a divided right-wing vote could influence the result in favor of Burnham.

Polling Trends and Electoral Dynamics

The findings from the Opinium survey reveal Burnham’s current support stands at 46%, while Kenyon trails at 41%. The poll, which surveyed 543 adults and excluded undecided voters, underscores the importance of voter alignment in this key constituency. Although Burnham’s position appears favorable, the slim margin suggests that any late surge by Reform UK or third-party candidates could tip the balance. The data also reflects the broader challenge of uniting the right-wing electorate amid growing divisions.

Restore Britain’s emergence has become a pivotal factor in the tight race. Founded by Rupert Lowe following his suspension from Reform UK last year, the party has gained momentum by emphasizing hard-right policies on immigration and national identity. Lowe’s departure from Reform UK, though initially controversial, has allowed the new group to attract voters disillusioned with the party’s leadership. Despite the Crown Prosecution Service ruling against criminal charges in his case, the political realignment has already reshaped the electoral landscape.

A Strategic Shift in the Political Arena

Professor Sir John Curtice, a renowned UK pollster, noted that Restore Britain’s influence could be the deciding element in the by-election. “The party might determine whether Reform UK secures a breakthrough or falls short,” he said, highlighting the potential for a fragmented right-wing vote to impact the outcome. The professor also pointed out that Restore Britain is drawing younger voters, who may perceive it as a more radical alternative to Reform UK’s current direction.

“Their 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be critical in a close race,” Curtice added, emphasizing the need for voters to consider the broader implications of their choices.

Makerfield as a Political Barometer

The Makerfield by-election is not just a local contest but a potential indicator for national political trends. With Labour’s five-point lead over Reform UK narrowing, the race has drawn attention as a key battleground for future leadership contests. If Burnham triumphs, it could bolster his position in the Labour leadership race, particularly against Sir Keir Starmer. His campaign team is positioning the result as a strategic victory for maintaining Labour’s dominance in the region.

Forward Democracy, which runs a tactical voting platform called Stop Reform UK, has framed Burnham as the sole candidate capable of countering Reform’s growing influence. “For voters who typically support Green, Liberal Democrat, or other parties, the choice is clear: Burnham is the only option to prevent Reform from gaining momentum,” said Tom de Grunwald, the organization’s founder. This narrative underscores the race’s significance beyond the immediate election.

Impact of Third-Party Candidates

While the Conservatives and Greens trail below 2% in the poll, their performance could indirectly affect the result. A surge in turnout from these smaller parties might amplify anti-Labour sentiment, especially if they mobilize supporters who could otherwise shift to Reform UK or Restore Britain. The by-election serves as a test case for how third-party movements might reshape future electoral outcomes, particularly in constituencies where the political divide is most pronounced.