What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump’s ultimatum
What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump’s ultimatum
Time is running out for President Donald Trump’s warning to eliminate significant portions of Iran’s civilian infrastructure, should the nation not reach an agreement by Tuesday evening. However, military experts and analysts suggest Trump has placed himself in a difficult position with threats that the US armed forces cannot realistically execute in a single operation. They caution that even a major attack might not compel the Iranian government to swiftly accept a truce.
Trump pledged on Monday to obliterate “every bridge” and power station in Iran within four hours if a deal was not finalized by 20:00 EST (00:00 GMT Wednesday). His rhetoric intensified on Tuesday, declaring that “a whole civilization will die” if Iran didn’t comply with his deadline. These statements mark an unusual level of presidential aggression, according to specialists in international law, who note that targeting civilian facilities could qualify as a war crime.
Feasibility of the Threat
Despite the boldness of Trump’s promises, former US defense officials and analysts argue that the task of destroying all bridges in a country as vast as Iran within a short timeframe is nearly impossible. The nation spans roughly a third the size of the contiguous United States, and while the US has precise knowledge of key installations like nuclear plants, identifying and striking thousands of bridges in such a compressed window is challenging.
“To meet this threat literally would be an absolute herculean task. And would it have the desired strategic effect?” said a former senior US defense official, who requested anonymity.
Experts also emphasize that a large-scale assault on Iran’s power sector is more practical than a sweeping attack on every bridge. The majority of the country’s power plants and refineries are concentrated in three Gulf provinces—Bushehr, Khuzestan, and Hormozgan—making them prime targets. “Attacking those three provinces would sever the regime’s access to oil revenue and the Persian Gulf,” explained Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury official and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy.
Recent Strikes and Diplomatic Efforts
Vice-President JD Vance revealed that the US had conducted airstrikes on Kharg Island, a crucial location in the Persian Gulf responsible for handling nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. In Budapest, he stated these strikes did not signal a shift in Trump’s approach, asserting that negotiations would persist until the deadline. “The Iranians must understand we have tools in our arsenal that we haven’t yet decided to use,” he added.
The White House clarified that Vance’s remarks did not imply a nuclear strike against the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Iran’s state media reported that US-Israeli forces had already bombed a bridge in Qom, citing previous claims that the US had struck the country’s largest bridge. Yet, it remains uncertain whether Trump’s imminent threat will be enough to pressure Tehran into negotiations.
Progress in Talks
Following weeks of indirect discussions, US and Iranian officials engaged in direct communication on Tuesday. However, major disagreements persist, particularly over the future of Iran’s oil sector, its nuclear program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump claimed that Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice-President JD Vance were leading the talks, but a confidential US official noted that Witkoff and Kushner manage daily negotiations, with Vance only involved if a deal appears close.
“The Vice-President may be called in more directly if there’s substantial progress from Witkoff and Kushner,” the official said. Trump’s strategy may hinge on leveraging the population’s anxiety, as he prepares to escalate the situation if no resolution emerges by the stated deadline.
