Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
The Grand National, held at Aintree, stands as a cornerstone of British horse racing. Yet, with 34 horses competing, selecting the eventual champion often feels like a random draw. While historical success stories might offer clues, can they reliably predict the 2026 winner? BBC Sport examines the data to uncover potential patterns.
Grand National 2026
Scheduled for Saturday, 11 April, the 2026 Grand National will take place at 16:00 BST. Live updates, commentary, and analysis will be available on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds, alongside real-time text coverage on the BBC Sport website and app. For Friday’s races, 5 Sports Extra will provide coverage from 14:00 to 16:15 BST.
Past Winners’ Odds
The 2025 winner, Nick Rockett (orange and black, near side), was priced at 33-1, joining a list of notable previous victors. Since 2000, the shortest-priced Grand National winner was Tiger Roll in 2019, who triumphed at 4-1 and became the first horse to secure consecutive wins since Red Rum in the 1970s. Conversely, Mon Mome’s 2009 victory came at 100-1, while the average price for winners over the last 25 years has hovered just below 24-1. Notably, eight of these winners were priced 33-1 or higher, suggesting that longer odds should not deter bettors.
Weight and Performance Trends
Weight has played a critical role in recent Grand National outcomes. Winners from the past 25 years have carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lb, with an average of 10st 12lb to 10st 13lb. This range might help narrow down contenders, as the top six horses in the 2026 field are likely to be heavier. I Am Maximus, aiming to break the record for the first top-weight winner since Red Rum in 1974, is among those at risk. Of the last 11 winners, nine fell within 10st 5lb to 11st 8lb, further emphasizing the importance of weight in this race.
Age and Trainer Insights
Age has also influenced recent results. Since 2014, no horse aged 10 or older has claimed victory, though Noble Yeats in 2022 defied expectations by winning as a seven-year-old. This marked the first such occurrence since Bogskar in 1940. Over the past decade, eight of the 10 winners were eight or nine years old. Trainers like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have had mixed fortunes, with Mullins’ stable jockey, Paul Townend, securing two places in the last five years. However, the 2024 race saw I Am Maximus, trained by Mullins, emerge as a top contender.
Official Rating Analysis
Handicappers assign official ratings to horses, reflecting their competitive level. In the past 16 races, 14 winners received a rating of 146 or higher, with 13 falling between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, the 2025 champion, both carry ratings within this range, indicating their potential to challenge again.
“In short, no.”
