Russia has signed a military pact with the Taliban. Could its fighters start turning up in Ukraine?
Russia has signed a military pact with the Taliban. Could its fighters start turning up in Ukraine?
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New Alliance forges in Moscow
At the recent “International Security Forum” in Moscow, Russia and the Taliban concluded a formal military agreement, marking a pivotal moment in their partnership. This collaboration deepens Russia’s engagement with the Islamist group, solidifying its status as the sole nation to officially acknowledge the Taliban’s governance in Afghanistan. The event, hosted by Russian authorities, featured high-level participation from the Taliban’s defense minister and Mohammad Yaqoob, a senior leader of the movement.
This summit represents the first major engagement between Taliban officials and Russian representatives since the group’s recognition in July 2025. No other country has formally endorsed the Taliban as Afghanistan’s ruling authority, highlighting Russia’s unique geopolitical position. The agreement, however, remains shrouded in ambiguity, as neither party has disclosed specifics about its terms or implementation.
Strategic Ambitions and Regional Rivalries
Speaking at the forum, Mohammad Yaqoob emphasized the expanded bilateral relations between Russia and the Taliban, calling the partnership “of great significance.” He underscored the group’s commitment to strengthening ties with Moscow, a key ally in the region. “Afghanistan and Russia have a long-standing historical connection, and this collaboration marks a new chapter in our shared goals,” Yaqoob stated, drawing attention to the strategic alignment between the two powers.
Accompanying Yaqoob was Sergei Shoigu, a prominent figure in Russian politics and former defense minister. Shoigu, currently serving as secretary of the Russian security council, highlighted the meeting’s focus on countering Western sanctions. “We believe the West should release frozen Afghan assets and acknowledge the impact of their 20-year occupation,” he said. This rhetoric signals Russia’s desire to reshape the regional power dynamics, positioning itself as a critical player in Afghanistan’s future.
Shoigu also praised the Taliban’s efforts to combat terrorism and drug trafficking within the country. “The group’s initiatives in these areas are commendable,” he remarked, while criticizing the potential return of U.S. and NATO military infrastructure to Afghanistan or its neighboring states. This critique underscores Russia’s apprehensions about Western influence persisting in the region despite the Taliban’s rise to power.
Expert Perspectives on the Agreement’s Scope
Analysts caution that the level of military cooperation between Russia and the Taliban is still unclear. While the agreement signals a closer relationship, it may not mirror the North Korea model, which saw thousands of troops deployed to support Moscow’s war in Europe. “The specifics of this deal are yet to be defined, and it’s premature to assume the Taliban will commit large numbers of fighters to Ukraine,” noted Aleksei Zakhrov, a researcher at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
Zakhrov highlighted the fundamental differences between Russia’s partnerships with North Korea and the Taliban. “In the case of North Korea, the exchange was more about tangible resources—troops and munitions—given in return for advanced missile technology and economic support,” he explained. By contrast, the Taliban’s alliance with Russia is likely driven by mutual interests rather than a binding obligation. “The agreement may focus on strategic cooperation rather than direct military deployment,” he added.
Russia’s current priorities in Afghanistan include securing its northern provinces and stabilizing the porous border with Central Asia, which it views as its “backyard.” The Taliban’s challenges in maintaining control over this region could make them a reliable partner for Russian military aid, such as outdated weaponry or equipment repairs. “The Taliban’s position is fragile, so Russia might prefer to see them prioritize internal security before committing to external missions,” Zakhrov said. This approach aligns with Moscow’s broader strategy of leveraging regional allies to counter Western influence.
Geopolitical Implications and Concerns
The potential for Taliban fighters to join Russia’s war effort in Ukraine has sparked speculation, though experts remain cautious. “While the agreement is significant, it’s not a guarantee of troop deployment,” said Zakhrov. He pointed out that the Taliban’s ability to project military power beyond Afghanistan is limited by their domestic challenges and the lack of a unified front.
Russia’s interest in engaging the Taliban may also be influenced by its concerns over the resurgence of Isis-Khorasan, a militant faction within the Islamic State active in Afghanistan. “The presence of Isis-Khorasan in the region is a growing threat, and the Taliban’s role in containing it could be a strategic advantage for Moscow,” said Shoigu. This dynamic adds another layer to the agreement, positioning the Taliban not just as a political partner but also as a counterterrorism asset.
Despite the optimism surrounding the new alliance, analysts warn of potential risks. “The Taliban’s commitment to Russia’s cause in Ukraine depends on their ability to manage internal stability and external threats,” said Zakhrov. “If they fail to secure their northern provinces, their capacity to contribute to an international conflict may be compromised.”
Broader Context of the Russia-Taliban Partnership
The Russia-Taliban agreement reflects a broader shift in global alliances. With the U.S. and NATO struggling to maintain influence in Afghanistan, Russia has seized the opportunity to solidify its position. This move also comes amid a growing stalemate in Ukraine, where Russia seeks to gain momentum in its war effort.
While the deal may not immediately result in the Taliban’s involvement in Ukraine, it signals a willingness to explore multi-front military collaboration. “The Taliban’s role in the conflict could evolve, but for now, it’s more about strengthening ties than sending troops,” Zakhrov explained. This dual-purpose agreement allows Russia to bolster its regional standing while maintaining flexibility in its global ambitions.
In conclusion, the Russia-Taliban military pact is a strategic maneuver with far-reaching implications. While it may not yet translate into direct troop contributions to Ukraine, it sets the stage for a more integrated partnership. As both sides work to define the agreement’s terms, the world watches closely to see how this alliance shapes the future of conflicts in Afghanistan and beyond.
“Afghanistan and Russia have long and historical relations, in this direction we want to move further. We have expanded bilateral relations,” said Mohammad Yaqoob, son of the Taliban movement’s founder Mullah Mohammad Omar.
“We consider unacceptable – both for us and for our Afghan friends – the return of military structures or facilities of the United States and Nato to Afghanistan or neighbouring states under any pretext,” said Sergei Shoigu, a top aide to Vladimir Putin.
“Russia cannot expect any significant help from the Taliban – in terms of weapons or troops. In the absence of any detail on the agreement terms, it is actually hard to say what Russia can get from Afghanistan,” said Aleksei Zakhrov, a fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank.
“The Taliban is currently struggling with rising instability in Afghan northern provinces and cannot fully protect the southern border with Pakistan. For this reason, Russia's aid with repair of the military equipment or supplies of some outdated weapons would be quite timely,” said Zakhrov.