As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?
UK’s Military Shrinking Amid Defence Spending Concerns
Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised alarms about the UK’s security posture, criticizing the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) for insufficient investment. In a recent statement, he emphasized that relying on an expanding welfare budget to fund national defense is risky. BBC Verify has examined the current state of the British military, revealing significant reductions in personnel and assets since the end of the Cold War.
Army Numbers Decline Sharply
As of 1990, the UK army maintained 153,000 regular troops, but this has dropped to 73,790 today. The 2025 SDR aimed to keep the regular force above 73,000, yet applications for enlistment fell by approximately 40% in 2025 compared to 2024. Reservists also saw a drastic reduction, decreasing from 76,000 to 25,770 since 1990.
Navy and RAF Face Challenges
The Royal Navy’s fleet has shrunk from 48 major combat ships—13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. Critics questioned its readiness after delays in deploying HMS Dragon to Cyprus. Meanwhile, the RAF’s combat jet count has fallen from over 300 in 1990 to 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, though these newer models are more advanced. Uncrewed aircraft systems, or drones, have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air capabilities, a role they did not play in the 1990s.
“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”
Spending Targets and Comparative Analysis
The government claims it will increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027 and target 3% in the next Parliament. However, this goal is seen as modest, given the long-term decline in defence funding since the fall of the Berlin Wall. In 2025, the UK’s defence spending stood at 2.3% of GDP, placing it near the middle of NATO members’ allocations.
Lord Robertson highlighted the imbalance between defence and welfare spending, noting that the latter has grown significantly. Working-age benefits now exceed defence funding, and this trend is expected to continue, with welfare spending projected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade. Rising Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims, partly linked to mental health issues, have contributed to this shift.
Procurement Efficiency Under Scrutiny
The Ministry of Defence oversees 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives, yet its performance has faced criticism. The National Audit Office (NAO) reported that progress on 12 projects was rated ‘Red,’ indicating unattainable delivery timelines. It also noted that contracts for projects over £20 million take an average of six and a half years to finalize, far exceeding the 2025 SDR’s recommendation of two-year timelines.
Global Context and Future Priorities
Analysts argue that the UK must boost investment in military technologies like drones, which have proven effective in the Ukraine conflict. Despite the government’s stance, only Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia exceeded 3.5% GDP defence spending in 2025, with Estonia and Norway close behind. The UK also aims to meet a NATO goal of 5% GDP for national security by 2035, split between core defence and civil preparedness measures.
