Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Lebanon Engages Israel in Peace Talks Amid Uncertain Prospects
As Lebanon grapples with renewed conflict, a meeting with President Joseph Aoun at the Baabda Palace—nestled atop a hill overlooking Beirut—came to mind last August. Aoun, a retired military leader, assumed office following a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim faction backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had suffered significant setbacks and was politically isolated, yet Aoun declared his intent to disarm the group. His belief in resolving the issue stemmed from a statement:
“I was born an optimist.”
A Ceasefire in Fragile Balance
When we met, a fragile truce had temporarily halted hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the November 2024 conflict. However, Israel continued launching daily strikes against targets linked to the group, while certain regions remained embroiled in ongoing clashes. From my residence in eastern Beirut, I could occasionally detect the hum of Israeli drones patrolling above. For Hezbollah’s allies, the group symbolizes defense against Israeli expansion, while critics argue it prioritizes Iranian interests, pulling Lebanon into prolonged wars.
Historical Roots of Tension
Hezbollah, known as the “Party of God,” emerged in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Funded, trained, and armed by Iran, it has consistently pursued the dismantling of Israeli influence. The 1989 Taif Agreement, which concluded the Lebanese Civil War, required militias to surrender weapons and established a power-sharing framework among the nation’s diverse communities. Yet Hezbollah, positioning itself as a resistance force, retained its arms. Israel’s withdrawal in 2000 did not resolve territorial disputes, and UN Resolution 1701, enacted after the 2006 war, still awaits full implementation.
Current Stakes and Dilemmas
President Aoun, advocating for a “state monopoly on arms,” faces a precarious challenge. Hezbollah, despite agreeing to relocate its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon in the 2024 ceasefire, maintains control over key areas like Dahieh and the Bekaa Valley. Its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has refused to consider nationwide disarmament. Aoun warns that unilateral removal of Hezbollah’s arsenal could reignite violence. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he emphasized during our August conversation. Meanwhile, Israel’s recent air strikes, which claimed over 300 lives in a single day, prompted the US to facilitate talks in Washington, where ambassadors from both nations will discuss a potential ceasefire.
